IAG buscaría a Vueling para competir con Ryanair

Mientras la sospecha de desarmar a Iberia parecer hacerse más grande -sólo la sospecha-, el conglomerado anglo-hispano, en particular British Airways, buscó hacerse con Vueling. Las ofertas lanzadas meses atrás parecían una burla para quien casi triplicara sus ganancias durante 2012 ¿Cuál sería la utilidad de Vueling en España? Ampliar un mercado con mucho potencial, abarcado ya por Ryanair.

Esto, según Air Observer, quien especula el uso que le dará IAG a las aerolíneas españolas en el mercado aéreo: Iberia Express servirá para los viajes cortos, mientras Vueling estará destinado a trayectos medianos, e Iberia tenderá a volar rutas de largo alcance.

Indistintamente de ello, Vueling tendrá que hacer gran esfuerzo si quiere desplazar a Ryanair, quien anunció la tarifa de 10 euros para vuelos trasatlánticos en el caso de que se concretaran los acuerdos de cielos abiertos entre Estados Unidos y Europa. Más allá de eso, se suma la participación de liderazgo de la aerolínea irlandesa,



 

IAG has finally decided to get down to business with Vueling. Having raised its offer by a third Wednesday, the British-Spanish conglomerate expects to win the pot and makes the low-cost carrier its own. What’s at stake is a potential hegemony in the Spanish medium-haul market. And this is no bluff.

Winning the pot: IAG’s strategy to win Ryanair in Spain

I pretty much foresaw this, even backing my point with solid statistics two weeks ago: IAG’s offer was way too low for Vueling’s real value. Now, it was still crystal clear that the multinational conglomerate wouldn’t leave it as it was. In fact, they did more than just muscling up their offer: they increased it by a third, from a feeble €7 per share to a solid €9.25 per which is enormous.

However it is hardly a surprise. There are plenty of reasons why they won’t let Vueling go away. First, the low-cost carrier nearly tripled its profits in 2012 despite a looming economy. Then, there is the fact that Iberia, IAG’s subsidiary, has been in bad shape lately, having to deal with painful restructuring and severe opposition from the union. Basically, IAG needs a new champion and that would be Vueling.  The low-cost company is the centerpiece in what appears to be a strategy to snatch the local medium-haul market (and most of the European one too). By doing so, IAG would have the back strong enough to butt heads with Ryanair, which has been sitting on the Spanish throne for a while.

Getting Iberia ready for Vueling.

I already exposed my point of view on the matter. Basically, IAG is likely trying to build a warmachine which relies on Iberia Express for the short haul, Vueling for the medium haul and Iberia for the long haul. This may be one of the extra reason why Rafael Sanchez-Lozano, former Iberia CEO, threw in the towel earlier this week and is to be replaced by Luis Gallego (who run Iberia Express). Simply put, IAG is already sorting things out so that Vueling can fit in just fine. That might just be putting the cart before the horse although I highly doubt Vueling’s shareholders will turn down the offer this time: they really put everything on the table.

What next?

Now suppose, I say suppose IAG does manage to purchase Vueling, what would happen next? Let’s just throw out some thoughts for the sake of it. First, they’ll have to make sure the low-cost company remains as profitable as it was before and that the new acquisition doesn’t end up having its wings clipped. Also, they would have to sort out their strategy on the long-haul market: would Iberia really benefit from focusing on the long-haul market? It is true that, so far, short-haul and medium-haul have been pummeling the results of the company, but it’s not certain that it can succeed on its own in the long-haul market business. And last but not least, will all this effort be enough to compete with Ryanair?